{"id":4804,"date":"2020-04-01T18:08:49","date_gmt":"2020-04-01T18:08:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/?p=4804"},"modified":"2020-04-01T18:08:49","modified_gmt":"2020-04-01T18:08:49","slug":"summaries-of-c-19-research-ive-been-doing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/2020\/04\/01\/summaries-of-c-19-research-ive-been-doing\/","title":{"rendered":"Summaries of C-19 research I’ve been doing"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In the morning of 4\/1:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

– The FiveThirtyEight article<\/a> Lib posted on why it’s so hard to model C-19 is really fantastic (although probably not of practical interest). They’ve been doing some good journalism in their science and health section<\/a>, including weekly surveys of infectious disease experts to try to get a sense of the C-19 outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


– NYT data journalism is continuing to kick ass, with a good piece from 3\/26<\/a> on how each state is doing on per-capita testing (covidtracking<\/a> is also trying to track tests per state), along with their various updating charts like their daily tracker of C-19 deaths per state and country<\/a>. I wish they had a centralized table of contents of their C-19 datavis work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


– A few updates and better organization for my bookmarks<\/a>, and I’m starting to stick stuff I read that I think is good on my blog<\/a>; that’ll probably be a lot more stuff than my bookmarks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the afternoon:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

– I’ve been trying to get some sense of what the tradeoff in human wellbeing is for different C-19 strategies. Here’s a starting place, at least: if we treat a human life as worth about 10 million dollars (which is the standard figure researchers arrive at in terms of eg what we’re willing to pay for a safer car, or the premium that dangerous jobs command) we in the US should be willing to spend about 20 trillion dollars on this (if that gets us from a bad outcome of 2 million US deaths to a “good” outcome of about 100k deaths). It’s not clear what the cost of our planned response is on top of the $2 trillion we’ve officially spent (you have to take into account the uncertain effects of economic slowdown, failed businesses, lost jobs etc), but at least one analysis<\/a> (which I haven’t yet read) suggests that we still come out comfortably ahead using the strategy we’re using. Hoping to try to read that paper at some point, but fivethirtyeight does a good job<\/a> taking at least a basic look at it. Obviously it’s uncomfortable to think about tradeoffs between human life and money, but in practice we’re all doing it all the time even if we don’t talk about it…<\/p>\n\n\n\n


– I found a source<\/a> for better info on how we’re doing on tests (StatNews). tl;dr: we’re theoretically now in a position to do 100k tests per day (we’ve only done a total<\/strong> of 160k to date, so I’m a bit skeptical that we’re at that capacity in practice). That may be enough? “A recent report from the American Enterprise Institute co-authored by former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb puts the number of tests needed at 750,000 tests per week.” But there must be a ton of assumptions built into that number, and StatNews doesn’t seem to feel too clear on whether we’ll have enough. I’d still like to find comparable info for ventilators and masks\/PPE.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the morning of 4\/1: – The FiveThirtyEight article Lib posted on why it’s so hard to model C-19 is really fantastic (although probably not of practical interest). They’ve been doing some good journalism in their science and health section, including weekly surveys of infectious disease experts to try to get a sense of the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4804","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p3pfIY-1fu","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4804","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4804"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4804\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4805,"href":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4804\/revisions\/4805"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4804"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4804"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4804"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}