I’m not convinced that this view was correct. It really, really does seem like this time is different. But I’m also not convinced that this view is incorrect, and it seems well worth considering. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\nMost of the technologists I know take an attitude towards this future that\u2019s equal parts melancholy, fatalism, and pride \u2014 sort of an Oppenheimer-esque \u201cNow I am become death, destroyer of jobs\u201d kind of thing. They all think the immiseration of labor is inevitable, but they think that being the ones to invent and own the AI is the only way to avoid being on the receiving end of that immiseration. And in the meantime, it\u2019s something cool to have worked on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So when I cheerfully tell them that it\u2019s very possible that regular humans will have plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI dominance<\/strong> \u2014 often doing much the same kind of work that they\u2019re doing right now<\/strong> \u2014 technologists typically become flabbergasted, flustered, and even frustrated. I must simply not understand just how many things<\/em> AI will be able to do, or just how good it will be<\/em> at doing them, or just how cheap<\/em> it\u2019ll get. I must be thinking to myself \u201cSurely, there are some things humans will always be better at machines at!\u201d, or some other such pitiful coping mechanism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But no. That is not<\/em> what I am thinking. Instead, I accept that AI may someday get better than humans at every conceivable task<\/em>. That\u2019s the future I\u2019m imagining. And in that future, I think it\u2019s possible \u2014 perhaps even likely \u2014 that the vast majority of humans will have good-paying jobs, and that many of those jobs will look pretty similar to the jobs of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At which point you may be asking: \u201cWhat the heck is this guy smoking?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Well, I\u2019ll tell you.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
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