{"id":698,"date":"2012-06-17T13:59:00","date_gmt":"2012-06-17T13:59:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/2012\/06\/17\/joshua-ellis-revisits-the-grim-meathook-future\/"},"modified":"2012-06-17T13:59:00","modified_gmt":"2012-06-17T13:59:00","slug":"joshua-ellis-revisits-the-grim-meathook-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/2012\/06\/17\/joshua-ellis-revisits-the-grim-meathook-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Joshua Ellis revisits the Grim Meathook Future"},"content":{"rendered":"

Guest Post: Joshua Ellis revisits the Grim Meathook Future<\/a>:
This is the first in a series of guest posts I\u2019ve solicited, that will appear over the coming weeks and months. Kicking things off, our friend Joshua Ellis<\/a> updates his notion of The Grim Meathook Future<\/a>\u00a0to give us:<\/em><\/p>\n

The Grim Meathook Future, Revisited<\/h2>\n

Several years ago, I wrote\u00a0this thing<\/a>\u00a0on a private message board run by the writer\u00a0Warren \u201cNo Relation\u201d Ellis<\/a>. One of the other board members,\u00a0Jamie Zawinski<\/a>, liked it so much he posted it on his LiveJournal, and it took on a bit of life of its own, and a phrase from it, \u201cthe grim meathook future\u201d, has kind of entered the futurist parlance.\u00a0Bruce Sterling<\/a>\u00a0used it in a SxSW keynote, and most recently it showed up as a bit of a demented character\u2019s inner monologue in\u00a0Charlie Stross<\/a>\u2019s\u00a0Rule 34<\/em>. (There is nothing quite as odd, by the way, as reading a novel and coming across a phrase you coined.)
Part of what I wrote was this:<\/p>\n

The upshot of all of this is that the Future gets divided; the cute, insulated future that\u00a0Joi Ito<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Cory Doctorow<\/a>\u00a0and you and I inhabit, and the grim meathook future that most of the world is facing, in which they watch their squats and under-developed fields get turned into a giant game of Counterstrike between crazy faith-ridden jihadist motherfuckers and crazy faith-ridden American redneck motherfuckers, each doing their best to turn the entire world into one type of fascist nightmare or another.
Of course, nobody really wants to talk about that future, because it\u2019s depressing and not fun and doesn\u2019t have\u00a0Fischerspooner<\/a>\u00a0doing the soundtrack. So everybody pretends they don\u2019t know what the future holds, when the unfortunate fact is that \u2014 unless we start paying very serious attention \u2014 it holds what the past holds: a great deal of extreme boredom punctuated by occasional horror and the odd moment of grace.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

What a lot of people seemed to miss, when they read this and ran with it, was that the Grim Meathook Future emphatically\u00a0isn\u2019t<\/em>\u00a0the Mad Max postapocalypse where everybody runs around shooting at each other in body armor made of tractor tires and Wilson\u2019s Leather remaindered items. That future \u2014 envisioned by many as a sort of antidote to the gee-whiz chrome-plated futures of\u00a0Star Trek<\/em>\u00a0and 1950s rock-ribbed science fiction \u2014 is, in point of fact, entirely as ridiculous and unlikely as any of the\u00a0technofetishistic Rapture-of-the-nerds bullshit<\/a>\u00a0that the transhumanists come up with. It\u2019s a macho fantasy invented by the sort of libertarians who secretly pray for the Poor People to rise up and start a civil war so their friends will stop laughing at them for keeping a cache of automatic weapons next to their Lexus in the garage of their suburban enclave.
Look: in the event of an actual global thermonuclear war, the likelihood is that pretty much all life on Earth would be wiped away, either in the firestorms or during the onset of the resulting nuclear winter, which would kill off the plants and the animals that ate the plants and the people who ate the animals and the plants. Nobody would have time to forget the old ways and revert to pre-civilizational\u00a0Lord Of The Flies<\/em>\u00a0behavior; they\u2019d be too busy dying of radiation poisoning or starvation. Poisoned and starving people don\u2019t spend a lot of time waging tribal war on each other, because they\u2019re too busy shitting out their own intestines or falling down unconscious every time they try to stand up too quickly.
But let\u2019s assume, for a moment, some notional apocalypse that destroys civilization and maybe reduces the human population by 90%. There\u2019s only one really possible scenario that could cause that, which is a fast-moving airborne pathogen with a high mortality rate. Not even global warming could kill that many of us off, because it doesn\u2019t happen fast enough; humans are fast-moving adaptable primates.\u00a0So imagine, if you like, that\u00a0Ebola Zaire<\/a>\u00a0mutates and becomes airborne and most of the people on Earth die out very quicly, leaving the lion\u2019s share of the remnants of civilization just lying around, a sort of mass version of\u00a0the Roanoke Island colony<\/a>, who left their food on their tables and their kitchen fires still burning.
Unless the survivors happened to be absolute drooling idiots, they\u2019d have the power back on and at least the basic necessities of survival up and running in a matter of weeks or months. Why? Because every technological artifact on Earth, from toasters to plutonium power plants, comes with a fucking instruction manual.<\/em>
<\/em>Always wanted to learn basic engineering, or how to read a schematic, but never had the time? Well, guess what, homey? You now have absolutely nothing to do but find any one of the thousands of thousands of libraries dotting the Earth\u2019s surface, load the\u00a0entire 600 section<\/a>\u00a0into a wheelbarrow, and retire to some place with a shady spot for reading and a large supply of beer. Hell, armed only with a\u00a0Boy\u2019s Big Book Of Electrical Projects<\/em>\u00a0from the 1960s and the contents of a run-down mini-mall, you could probably build a two-way radio and a dynamo hooked up to an exercise bike to run it off of. Sure, if you weren\u2019t a nerd or a maker, it might take you a while to figure it out\u2026but if the world ends, it\u2019s gonna take your inbox and your Getting Things Done list with it. You\u2019ll have nothing but time.
So no, that\u2019s not my Grim Meathook Future. (It actually sounds kind of lovely; now where did I leave those access codes for the biowarfare lab, again\u2026.) My Grim Meathook Future is the one that looks like the present.
Living in America \u2014 indeed, in any of the economically top-tier countries in the First World \u2014 is like living in a big room. It\u2019s huge, this room, so big that you can\u2019t see the walls, and it\u2019s nice and cozy. To\u00a0paraphrase Depeche Mode<\/a>: all you ever wanted, all you ever needed is here in your arms. And you\u2019ve never been outside the room. Intellectually, you\u00a0know<\/em>\u00a0that there\u2019s a world outside, maybe one that\u2019s not quite as nice and cozy; you\u2019ve seen it on TV, after all. But it doesn\u2019t really affect you. When you think of the\u00a0world<\/em>, you think of the\u00a0room<\/em>; your idea of normality is based on what\u2019s normal in the room.
There are\u00a0nearly a billion Facebook users<\/a>\u00a0in the world, and\u00a0half a billion Twitter users<\/a>\u00a0(though of course there\u2019s probably nearly a 90% overlap between those two). Those are indeed astonishing numbers, but the problem is that sometime around March 12, 2012,\u00a0we passed\u00a0seven billion people<\/em>\u00a0living on Earth<\/a>. That means that the vast majority of humans aren\u2019t on Facebook or Twitter. The majority of people have mobile phones, but there are\u00a0more people still who don\u2019t have mobile phones than use Facebook<\/a>.
Most of us never see these people, of course, except as faces briefly glimpsed in the background of news footage. They are outside our Big Room. Not because we\u2019re intentionally keeping them out, you understand; at least, not really on any overt institutional level. Basically. We don\u2019t do that any more, and we feel good about it.
It\u2019s just that living in the Big Room is expensive, you see\u2026and, well, these people can\u2019t afford it. They don\u2019t have Facebook because they can\u2019t afford the technological artifacts that would allow them to be on Facebook. They don\u2019t tweet about how much the new version of iOS sucks, because they don\u2019t have any way to tweet and they damn sure don\u2019t have a device that will run iOS, because these devices cost more than these people often make in a year.
But, hey, look, things are tough all over. I\u2019m not saying this to make you feel guilty for having the basic economic and cultural capital to be able to read this essay. You probably had no more control over your circumstances than a boy-child growing up in the streets of Kibera did, and no reason to feel guilty. We are where we are.
But it\u2019s important to understand that the capital-F Future where we become cyborgs permanently mind-melded with our technology is open only to people who can afford that technology in the first place\u2026especially when technological innovation is driven by Silicon Valley-style venture capitalism.
I\u2019ve been a coder for most of my life \u2014 not a very good one, necessarily, by the standards of any given hackathon, but I\u2019ve made my living doing it for a long time, at least when I wasn\u2019t making a living by writing. Consequently, I\u2019ve worked with and been around Valley-style entrepreneurs and investors quite a bit. And it\u2019s taken me fifteen years of hanging out in the tech industry and around tech industry people to fully realize that I can\u2019t stand being in the same room with most of them.
\u201cIt\u2019s no trick to make a lot of money,\u201d says Everett Sloane in\u00a0Citizen Kane<\/em>, \u201cif all you want to do is make a lot of money.\u201d And it\u2019s true. All you have to do is find a lot of people with disposable income, figure out what they\u2019ll spend that income on, and sell it to them. At the heart of it, that\u2019s what Steve Jobs did, to some extent with the personal computer and to a greater extent with the iPhone. Later, Mark Zuckerberg figured out a neat, if creepy, angle on this trick: find the people with the income, find out what they spend it on\u2026and then sell that information to the people who sell the people the things they want to buy.
That\u2019s what Silicon Valley is for: making shit for people with disposable incomes to buy. (And making shit for companies to buy so their workflow is more efficient, so the people who own the company and work for the company can buy more of the other shit.) If it was ever about trying to make the world a better place, that train left the station a long time ago.
It\u2019s my experience that most venture capitalists and serial entrepreneur types are almost identical, personality-wise, to the street hustlers and drug dealers whose acquaintance I\u2019ve made over the years. They may wear polo shirts instead of Fubu and spend their money on organic produce instead of custom hubcap rims, but they operate on the same principle: waking up every day figuring out new ways to get paid. Whether these ways are good for society as a whole, or even for the person who\u2019s doing the paying, is a minor consideration next to the paycheck itself. And if you\u2019re not a means to that end, well, fuck you. More than once, I\u2019ve seen the exact same behavior in a Stanford-educated\u00a0dot.com<\/a>\u00a0startup founder at a tech meetup and a smacked-out panhandler on the Las Vegas Strip: they\u2019re all smiles and handshakes when they approach you, but as soon as they realize you\u2019re not a potential mark with an open wallet you can watch their eyes go dead and look right through you, on to the next target.
I hate these people and wouldn\u2019t piss on most of them if they were on fire, but that\u2019s fine; I hate bankers and lawyers too, like every other blowhard bohemian iconoclast does, and I doubt any of them are losing any sleep over it. What bothers me is that we\u2019ve effectively put these\u00a0walking hardons<\/a>\u00a0in charge of building that capital-F Future, in every sector of the innovation industry, from genetically grown food to biotechnology to communications to spaceship-building.
And none of them, not a single one, is interested in any Future if they can\u2019t sell it for a serious profit. Nor do they care if the process of selling and profiting leaves a swath of collateral damage the size of a Gulf Coast oil spill in its wake.
Which leaves those six billion other people, the people who don\u2019t live in the Big Room with you and me and Peter Thiel and Mark Zuckerberg, pretty well fucked.
The\u00a0real<\/em>\u00a0Grim Meathook Future, the one I talked about back when I wrote that thing and the one I see now, is the future where a relatively small slice of our species lives in a sort of Edenic\u00a0Eloi<\/a>\u00a0reality where the only problems are what we laughingly refer to as\u00a0White People Problems<\/a>, like being able to get four bars\u2019 worth of 4G signal at that\u00a0incredible<\/em>\u00a0pho joint that @ironicguy69 recommended on Twitter, or finding new ways to\u00a0lifehack<\/a>\u00a0all the shit we own into our massive closets\u2026while the rest of the world is reduced to maintaining our lifestyles via a complex process of\u00a0economically-positioned indentured servitude<\/a>\u00a0and clinging with the very tips of their fingernails onto the ragged edge of our consumer leavings, like the dorky dude who shows up the first day of school with the cheap K-Mart knockoffs of the pumped-up kicks the cool kids are wearing this year. In other words, the Grim Meathook Future is the one that looks like the present, the one where\u00a0nothing changes<\/em>.
But don\u2019t you know, people are talkin\u2019 about a revolution, son? In the streets of Cairo and Tripoli, where they\u00a0Twittered entire governments to their knees<\/a>; in Zucotti Park and in the shadow of the Bay Bridge, where they\u2019re\u00a0Occupying<\/a>\u00a0anything and everything they can. Information wants to be free, didn\u2019t you get the Facebook notification?
Yeah, I know that song, and I know who did the original version:\u00a0Stewart Brand, at the first Hacker\u2019s Conference<\/a>. But what Stewart\u00a0also\u00a0<\/em>said, that most of the cyberlibertarians forget to mention (or never knew in the first place) is that information wants to be\u00a0expensive<\/em>. Information \u2014 and the economy around it \u2014 wants to be sold to teenagers at the highest possible price point that their parents will tolerate. It wants to be unlimited,\u00a0if by unlimited you mean two gigabytes per month<\/a>, after which you get charged a dollar a megabyte.\u00a0Information wants to be marketed to you, and if it could put a microphone in your bedroom to hear what you muttered about in the deepest darkest depths of your dreams, it would do it, and it would convince you to\u00a0let<\/em>\u00a0it do it by allowing you to share your dreams with that dude you made out with one night at a party in college who, by virtue of the social networks, is still a part of your circle of interaction for no apparent goddamn reason at all. And then it would sell your dreams back to you, with free shipping if your order is over $25.
At least, that\u2019s what all the evidence these days suggests. If Western companies are helping developing nations throw off the various yolks of tyranny, it\u2019s only because they\u2019ve identified potential future markets. A free society, after all, usually means a free market. The Occupy Movement is very good at identifying the problems with the world \u2013\u00a0shit\u2019s fucked up real bad<\/em>\u00a0\u2013 but not so good at coming up with viable solutions that anybody with actual power pays much attention to. The social networks have been coopted by the activist movements, but only to the extent that you can now watch\u00a0Iranian soldiers<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0NYPD thugs<\/a>\u00a0beat the shit out of teenage girls in real-time. The beatings haven\u2019t stopped; no one has truly been held accountable; same as it ever was, same as it ever was. Knowing may be half the battle,\u00a0as they used to tell us on the old\u00a0G.I. Joe\u00a0<\/em>cartoon when I was a kid<\/a>, but that\u2019s just it: it\u2019s only\u00a0half\u00a0<\/em>the battle.
If I sound dismissive and cynical, it\u2019s because I am. I\u2019m deeply, irreconcilably cynical about the technology industry, especially when anybody in it starts mouthing off about human rights, as if they gave a shit. Of\u00a0course<\/em>\u00a0tech lobbyists frame things like the file-sharing issue as a human rights issue, and tell you that it\u2019s all about your right to have as many Dave Matthews MP3s as your hard drive can hold; they work for the people who make the software that shares the files and run the websites that link to the torrents, almost none of whom are doing it out of the kindness of their hearts. They don\u2019t talk to you about\u00a0musicians who can\u2019t make money from album sales anymore<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0newspapers that lock their doors after decades or centuries of publication<\/a>, simply because the people who run them can\u2019t figure out how to instantiate an instant technological pivot \u2014 because, you know, they\u2019re just stupid\u00a0journalists<\/em>, not social media gurus.
Is it good for humanity when these things happen? Is it good for individual communities, or the creative arts? It doesn\u2019t matter. It\u2019s good for the technology industry, for those\u00a0hustling pricks in the polo shirts<\/a>, whose job is to find new ways to sell shit to people. And that\u2019s all that matters.
That\u2019s the Grim Meathook Future I see lying before us, a long game of technological determinism where the only people who get their jetpacks or their self-driving cars or their anti-aging nanotech are the ones who can afford it, and everyone else can simply go fuck themselves and rot in whatever Third World toilet they were unlucky enough to be born into.
Is there a way around it? Man, I don\u2019t know. I really don\u2019t. And I actually\u00a0think<\/em>\u00a0about this shit a lot, not just on my daily commute from my bedroom to the coffeeshop patio. I read\u00a0Bruce Sterling\u2019s blog<\/a>\u00a0and I watch\u00a0TED talks<\/a>\u00a0and I sit around in the dark heat of the Las Vegas night and spend hours thinking about it\u2026and I just don\u2019t have an answer.
I\u2019m afraid that avoiding the Grim Meathook Future might require the dismantling of American-style corporate capitalism.\u00a0I\u2019m not a Communist or anything, but it seems to me that corporate capitalism as it\u2019s played in my country is a lot like throwing a hundred sharks and a hundred minnows into a small tank. Sharks are machines that eat minnows: they\u2019re incapable of doing anything else, even of keeping a few minnows around to make more minnows to eat later. So they\u2019ll eat and eat until there\u2019s nothing to do except eat each other, and the last one left alive in the tank isn\u2019t the winner: he\u2019s just the shark who gets to die slowly and horribly of starvation. People can only buy so much shit until they run out of money or space to put it in, and then what?
I hope that we\u2019ll wise up and take the sharks out of the pool, or at least muzzle them for a while. If we do \u2014 if we stop thinking entirely about the Benjamins and start thinking about the survival of our species as a whole \u2014 I think things will change, and some other future will open up, an even more radical future than any Singularity of social networks that might occur.
I hope so. I\u2019d love to see a future I couldn\u2019t predict.<\/p>\n

Joshua Ellis is lead developer and podcast co-host at NSFW Corp.<\/a>, as well as a writer, columnist, speaker and musician. He lives in Las Vegas with his wife Rosalie and his two cats, Erwin Schrodinger and Pablo Honey.<\/em><\/div>\n

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Guest Post: Joshua Ellis revisits the Grim Meathook Future: This is the first in a series of guest posts I\u2019ve solicited, that will appear over the coming weeks and months. Kicking things off, our friend Joshua Ellis updates his notion of The Grim Meathook Future\u00a0to give us: The Grim Meathook Future, Revisited Several years ago, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-698","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p3pfIY-bg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/698","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=698"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/698\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=698"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=698"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.novonon.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=698"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}