The Malthusian Economy: ‘productivity produces people, not prosperity’

Max Roser of Our World In Data takes a close look at historical economies. I’m drawing attention here to the ‘Malthusian Trap’ section, not the parts after that. He makes the case that pre-industrial economies are essentially Malthusian: new technology doesn’t improve people’s lives, it just results in more very poor people. I don’t think that’s very controversial, but the charts really bring it home.

https://ourworldindata.org/economic-growth

Critical Thinking isn’t Just a Process – Zeynep Tufekci

Interesting read on critical thinking in an environment of unreliable information:

One of the things I noticed throughout the past year has been that a lot of my friends who had grown up in authoritarian or poor countries had a much easier time adjusting to our new pandemic reality. My childhood was intermittently full of shortages of various things. We developed a corresponding reflex for stocking up on things when they were available, anticipating what might be gone soon. That was quite useful for the pandemic. So was trying to read between the lines of official statements—what was said and what was not, who was sitting with whom on the TV, and evaluating what the rumor networks brought in. It turns out those are really useful skills when authorities are lying at all levels…

https://zeynep.substack.com/p/critical-thinking-isnt-just-a-process

Bioethics: Tuskegee vs. COVID – Econlib

Bryan Caplan:

How come no country on Earth tried voluntary paid human experimentation?* As far as I can tell, the most important factor was the formal and informal opposition of bioethicists. In particular, bioethicists converged on absurdly (or impossibly) high standards for “truly informed consent” to deliberate infection
…

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Bioethics is to ethics as astrology is to astronomy. If bioethicists had previously prevented a hundred Tuskegees from happening, COVID would still have turned the existence of their entire profession into a net negative for humanity. Verily, we would be better off if their field had never existed.

[note that we are, finally, starting a human challenge trial, in the UK]

https://www.econlib.org/bioethics-tuskegee-vs-covid/

Before QAnon, Ronald Reagan and other Republicans purged John Birch Society extremists from the GOP – The Washington Post

Although Welch had been an early donor to Buckley’s National Review in the 1950s, Buckley had come to believe that Welch’s feverish rants threatened the conservative movement’s credibility and its future.

“Buckley was beginning to worry that with the John Birch Society growing so rapidly, the right-wing upsurge in the country would take an ugly, even Fascist turn,” John B. Judis wrote in his 1988 biography, “William F. Buckley, Jr.: Patron Saint of the Conservatives.” Buckley told Goldwater, according to Judis, that the John Birch Society was a “menace” to the conservative movement.

But Goldwater had a problem — much like the one that Republican leaders face today, as many of their voters embrace QAnon conspiracy theories and President Trump’s false claims of a stolen election. Goldwater wanted to distance himself from the conspiracy theories, but he feared alienating his base.

“Every other person in Phoenix is a member of the John Birch Society,” Goldwater told Buckley and Kirk. “I’m not talking about commie-haunted apple pickers or cactus drunks. I’m talking about the highest cast of men of affairs.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2021/01/15/john-birch-society-qanon-reagan-republicans-goldwater/

Peter Turchin’s cycles of history and the dangers of the next decade

Peter Turchin has an extremely interesting end at least somewhat empirically backed theory of historical cycles. It’s hard to know whether it’s true, but he’s taken seriously by some smart people (recent piece in The Atlantic, Slate Star Codex review of his book). Here’s a recent piece on why current division is likely to get worse, and what we can potentially do about it.

We predicted political upheaval in America in the 2020s. This is why it’s here and what we can do to temper it.

https://www.noemamag.com/welcome-to-the-turbulent-twenties/