The Political Landscape Is Not Even Close to Being What You Think – Niskanen Center

There were a few surprises for me in this summary of a March working paper by Larry Bartels:

we look at the underlying ideological and partisan sentiments of Republican and Democratic voters. Prof. Larry Bartels of Vanderbilt University did just that in a revealing working paper titled “Partisanship in the Trump Era,” released last month. In it, Bartels closely examined a November 2017 YouGov survey of 2,000 people, all of whom were originally interviewed in 2015 and 2016 as part of YouGov’s 2016 Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project. After putting all three of those survey findings through rigorous regression analyses, a great deal of conventional wisdom about what’s going on in the Republican Party was blown to bits.

https://niskanencenter.org/blog/political-landscape-not-even-close-think/

Major Climate Report Describes a Strong Risk of Crisis as Early as 2040

I find myself curious about whether there are places where I can place bets about climate change outcomes against wealthy climate skeptics. If they really believe what they claim, they should be willing to put their money where their mouth is — and that way I can at least end up with a consolation prize…

A landmark report from the United Nations’ scientific panel on climate change paints a far more dire picture of the immediate consequences of climate change than previously thought and says that avoiding the damage requires transforming the world economy at a speed and scale that has “no documented historic precedent.”

The report, issued on Monday by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of scientists convened by the United Nations to guide world leaders, describes a world of worsening food shortages and wildfires, and a mass die-off of coral reefs as soon as 2040 — a period well within the lifetime of much of the global population.

The report “is quite a shock, and quite concerning,” said Bill Hare, an author of previous I.P.C.C. reports and a physicist with Climate Analytics, a nonprofit organization. “We were not aware of this just a few years ago.” The report was the first to be commissioned by world leaders under the Paris agreement, the 2015 pact by nations to fight global warming.

The authors found that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current rate, the atmosphere will warm up by as much as 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial levels by 2040, inundating coastlines and intensifying droughts and poverty. Previous work had focused on estimating the damage if average temperatures were to rise by a larger number, 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius), because that was the threshold scientists previously considered for the most severe effects of climate change.

The new report, however, shows that many of those effects will come much sooner, at the 2.7-degree mark.

Avoiding the most serious damage requires transforming the world economy within just a few years, said the authors, who estimate that the damage would come at a cost of $54 trillion. But while they conclude that it is technically possible to achieve the rapid changes required to avoid 2.7 degrees of warming, they concede that it may be politically unlikely.

For instance, the report says that heavy taxes or prices on carbon dioxide emissions — perhaps as high as $27,000 per ton by 2100 — would be required. But such a move would be almost politically impossible in the United States, the world’s largest economy and second-largest greenhouse gas emitter behind China. Lawmakers around the world, including in China, the European Union and California, have enacted carbon pricing programs.

Source: Major Climate Report Describes a Strong Risk of Crisis as Early as 2040

Should Art Be a Battleground for Social Justice? – The New York Times

In the previous incarnation of [“culture wars”], the prevailing mood was mockery and more boundary expansion. All kinds of artists seemed eager to tick conservatives off, while testing how free freedom of expression really was. A queer independent cinema came out of this era. There seemed to be one erotic thriller a month. Tony Kushner wrote “Angels in America.” Madonna happened, over and over. Andres Serrano put a crucifix in a tank of his own urine, photographed it and called it “Piss Christ.”

The animating crisis of that era was sex — from the paranoia, shame and judgment during the AIDS epidemic to the national cataclysm of the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal. The animating crisis of this era is power: the abuse, sharing and stripping of it. Empowerment. Art might not have the privilege of being art for art’s sake anymore. It has to be art for justice’s sake. Suddenly, but for very different reasons, the kinds of people who used to be subject to censorship are now the purveyors of a not-dissimilar silencing. Something generational has shifted, even among the cool kids and artsy-fartsies. Members of the old anti-censorship brigades now feel they have to censor themselves.

So we wind up with safer art and discourse that provokes and disturbs and shocks less. It gives us culture whose artistic value has been replaced by moral judgment and leaves us with monocriticism. This might indeed be a kind of social justice. But it also robs us of what is messy and tense and chaotic and extrajudicial about art. It validates life while making work and conversations about that work kind of dull.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/03/magazine/morality-social-justice-art-entertainment.html

Incidentally, I hadn’t read the Zadie Smith piece he references, and it’s worth reading:

https://harpers.org/archive/2017/07/getting-in-and-out/

Birth of the Modern Diet – Scientific American

The prevailing dietary wisdom of the 16th century, as presented in these medical guidebooks, relied on two assumptions: first, that the process of digesting foods was actually a form of cooking. Indeed, cooking stood as the basic metaphor for the systems that sustained all life. Seeds were cooked into plants; when the plants appeared above the ground, the heat of the sun cooked them into ripe fruits and grains. If humans gathered these foodstuffs, they could cook them further to create edible dishes. Finally, the internal heat of the body turned the food into blood. The body then expelled as feces what was not digestible. Excrement joined putrefying dead animals and plants to begin the life cycle again.

The second assumption about food and health in this scenario involved maintaining a proper equilibrium of bodily fluids by eating a suitably balanced diet. Doctors and chefs of the time believed that four fluids, or humors, circulated in the body: blood, phlegm, yellow bile and black bile. These humors corresponded to the four Aristotelian elements–air, water, fire and earth. Because blood was hot and moist, it corresponded to air; phlegm was cold and moist and thus resembled water; yellow bile was hot and dry, similar to fire; black bile was cold and dry, connected to earth.

Ideally, the human body was slightly warm and slightly moist, although in practice the exact balance varied from individual to individual, depending on variables such as age, sex and geographic location. Older people were believed to be colder and drier than younger ones; menstruating women colder and wetter than men; southern Europeans more hot-blooded than their neighbors to the north. The perfect meal, like the perfect human temperament, was slightly warm and slightly moist, but combinations away from this center could be used as mild dietary correctives to warm and moisten the elderly, dry out the moister sex, and calm down the southerner or perk up the northerner.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/birth-of-the-modern-diet-2006-12/

A crash course in compilers – Increment: Programming Languages

The thing is, I absolutely love programming languages. I work as a graphics and video game developer, which is thrilling and challenging work, but secretly I would rather be hacking on compilers. I love languages because, of everything I’ve encountered in computing, languages are by far the weirdest. They combine the brain-bending rigor of abstract math, the crushing pressures of capitalistic industry, and the irrational anxiety of a high school prom. The decision to adopt or avoid a language is always a mix of their perceived formal power (“Does this language even have this particular feature?”), employability (“Will this language get me a job?”), and popularity (“Does anyone important use this language anymore?”). I can’t think of another engineering tool that demands similar quasi-religious devotion from its users. Programming languages ask us to reshape our minds, and that makes them deeply personal and subjective.

Source: A crash course in compilers – Increment: Programming Languages

Churchill’s Romper Suit and Siren Suit

Who knew?

The story goes that Winston Churchill noticed that bricklayers at his Chartwell Estate wore a heavy boiler suit. Next he went to his shirtmaker Turnbull & Asser asking them to make a similar garment from a suit fabric. Winston Churchill was so thrilled with the result that he ordered a batch of siren suits in different fabrics.

The famous prime minister called his one-piece suit a “romper suit”. People dubbed it a siren suit though. When the sirens in London warned about bombers during WWII, Winston Churchill and citizens of London would swiftly put on a lightweight one-piece suit, “the siren suit”, before going to a bomb shelter.

https://sartorialnotes.com/2017/02/01/churchills-romper-suit-siren-suit/

https://therake.com/stories/style/the-overall-effect-and-call-of-the-siren-suit/

How to Be Polite – Paul Ford

This is funny and good and worth reading, and I find a lot of those techniques useful in my own life 🙂

I’ve read many narratives about white people just touching black hair and I read them with my mouth open. Not because of the racism, even. Just because as a polite person the idea of just reaching out and touching anyone’s hair makes my eye twitch. When would it be appropriate? If there was a very large poisonous spider in their hair. If I was doing a magic trick. Or after six or more years of marriage.

There are exceptions. I pat the heads of toddlers I’ve known for more than six months. If tiny children volunteer to sit on my lap or ask to ride around on my back while I make horse noises, I make eye contact with their parents first and then comply. Afterwards I might skritch their toddler heads a little. I am not opposed to tousling in certain defined and appropriate circumstances.

But a whole class of problems goes away from my life because I see people as having around them a two or three foot invisible buffer. If there is a stray hair on their jacket I ask them if I can pluck it from them. If they don’t want that, they’ll do it themselves. If their name is now Susan, it’s Susan. Whatever happens inside that buffer is entirely up to them. It has nothing to do with me.

https://medium.com/s/story/how-to-be-polite-9bf1e69e888c

‘This guy doesn’t know anything’: the inside story of Trump’s shambolic transition team |The Guardian

Fascinating and fairly alarming excerpt from Michael Lewis’ new book:

Chris Christie noticed a piece in the New York Times – that’s how it all started. The New Jersey governor had dropped out of the presidential race in February 2016 and thrown what support he had behind Donald Trump. In late April, he saw the article. It described meetings between representatives of the remaining candidates still in the race – Trump, John Kasich, Ted Cruz, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders – and the Obama White House. Anyone who still had any kind of shot at becoming president of the United States apparently needed to start preparing to run the federal government. The guy Trump sent to the meeting was, in Christie’s estimation, comically underqualified. Christie called up Trump’s campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, to ask why this critical job had not been handed to someone who actually knew something about government. “We don’t have anyone,” said Lewandowski.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/sep/27/this-guy-doesnt-know-anything-the-inside-story-of-trumps-shambolic-transition-team